Best CS2 Cases to Open, Ranked by ROI
Weapon cases ranked by measured expected return: disclosed tier odds, the real wear distribution, StatTrak rolls, and live prices for the case, the key, and the drops. Only cases with near-complete price coverage are ranked. Most cases lose money on average; this table shows by how much.
| # | Case | Cost to open | Expected value | Expected return | Profit chance | Best drop |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 2 | $25.42 | $20.25 | -20.3% | 25.5% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 2 |  CS:GO Weapon Case 3 | $13.99 | $10.81 | -22.7% | 14.7% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 3 |  eSports 2013 Winter Case | $19.49 | $14.62 | -25.0% | 21.9% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 4 |  Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $7.48 | $5.52 | -26.1% | 11.4% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 5 |  Operation Wildfire Case | $5.64 | $3.95 | -29.9% | 9.6% | ★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $6,378.34 |
| 6 |  eSports 2014 Summer Case | $14.99 | $10.31 | -31.2% | 20.7% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 7 |  Operation Hydra Case | $31.29 | $20.95 | -33.0% | 9.3% | ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) at $33,847.14 |
| 8 |  Shadow Case | $4.04 | $2.69 | -33.3% | 9.7% | ★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,902.95 |
| 9 |  Glove Case | $14.74 | $9.56 | -35.1% | 6.8% | ★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Factory New) at $33,847.14 |
| 10 |  Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $12.02 | $7.74 | -35.6% | 11.4% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 11 |  Chroma 3 Case | $5.47 | $3.26 | -40.4% | 6.1% | ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $22,871.51 |
| 12 |  Revolver Case | $5.05 | $2.99 | -40.7% | 5.6% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 13 |  Huntsman Weapon Case | $10.08 | $5.94 | -41.0% | 12.4% | ★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $7,000.00 |
| 14 |  Horizon Case | $4.02 | $2.37 | -41.1% | 9.0% | ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New, StatTrak) at $18,604.79 |
| 15 |  Falchion Case | $3.97 | $2.34 | -41.2% | 8.8% | ★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $6,113.19 |
| 16 |  Operation Broken Fang Case | $8.24 | $4.77 | -42.0% | 9.7% | ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) at $3,267.38 |
| 17 |  Gamma Case | $5.33 | $2.91 | -45.4% | 6.3% | ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,272.38 |
| 18 |  Chroma Case | $6.93 | $3.73 | -46.2% | 10.3% | ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $22,871.51 |
| 19 |  Gallery Case | $3.26 | $1.75 | -46.3% | 9.4% | ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $1,795.00 |
| 20 |  Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $6.06 | $3.23 | -46.6% | 6.3% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 21 |  Prisma Case | $3.78 | $2.01 | -46.8% | 9.5% | ★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,255.75 |
| 22 |  CS20 Case | $3.46 | $1.82 | -47.3% | 8.1% | ★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $9,615.34 |
| 23 |  Shattered Web Case | $7.35 | $3.76 | -48.9% | 7.8% | ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $18,439.69 |
| 24 |  Spectrum Case | $5.85 | $2.94 | -49.7% | 5.5% | ★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred, StatTrak) at $80,573.44 |
| 25 |  Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $9.85 | $4.93 | -50.0% | 4.7% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $15,000.00 |
| 26 |  Chroma 2 Case | $5.90 | $2.92 | -50.5% | 6.5% | ★ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $22,871.51 |
| 27 |  Snakebite Case | $2.94 | $1.41 | -52.1% | 8.3% | ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) at $3,267.38 |
| 28 |  Gamma 2 Case | $5.28 | $2.48 | -53.1% | 5.0% | ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,272.38 |
| 29 |  Spectrum 2 Case | $5.08 | $2.29 | -54.8% | 5.2% | ★ Falchion Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred, StatTrak) at $80,573.44 |
| 30 |  Operation Riptide Case | $11.44 | $5.16 | -54.9% | 7.6% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,596.64 |
| 31 |  Danger Zone Case | $3.66 | $1.60 | -56.3% | 8.1% | ★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New, StatTrak) at $18,604.79 |
| 32 |  Prisma 2 Case | $3.73 | $1.57 | -57.9% | 5.4% | ★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,255.75 |
| 33 |  Recoil Case | $2.80 | $1.06 | -62.2% | 4.3% | ★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot (Factory New) at $3,267.38 |
| 34 |  Clutch Case | $3.09 | $1.17 | -62.3% | 5.1% | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) at $6,618.32 |
| 35 |  Fever Case | $3.03 | $1.07 | -64.8% | 4.7% | ★ Nomad Knife | Damascus Steel (Well-Worn, StatTrak) at $1,500.00 |
| 36 |  eSports 2013 Case | $51.49 | $17.98 | -65.1% | 4.4% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 37 |  Revolution Case | $2.75 | $0.96 | -65.2% | 4.0% | ★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Factory New) at $6,618.32 |
| 38 |  Dreams & Nightmares Case | $3.65 | $1.27 | -65.3% | 4.2% | ★ Butterfly Knife | Lore (Factory New, StatTrak) at $2,596.64 |
| 39 |  CS:GO Weapon Case | $113.79 | $38.45 | -66.2% | 5.3% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
| 40 |  Fracture Case | $2.95 | $0.98 | -66.8% | 4.6% | ★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $18,439.69 |
| 41 |  Kilowatt Case | $2.66 | $0.87 | -67.2% | 4.4% | ★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $1,795.00 |
| 42 |  Operation Bravo Case | $60.44 | $19.30 | -68.1% | 4.7% | ★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) at $66,666.66 |
Statistics computed Jul 19, 2026, 3:00 AM. Expected values exclude drops without a live price and use a $2.49 key. Cases where more than 10% of the drop probability has no live price are left out of the ranking entirely. Odds are community-verified estimates from Valve's regional disclosure. This is an informational comparison, not a reason to open cases.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the best CS2 case to open right now?
- By expected return, the CS:GO Weapon Case 2 currently ranks first at -20.3%. Rankings shift with market prices; statistics are recomputed hourly, and Doppler phase prices refresh on a slower multi-hour cycle.
- Do any CS2 cases have a positive expected value?
- Almost never. Once the key price is included, nearly every case returns less than it costs to open on average. The ranking is useful for comparing cases, not a reason to expect profit.
- How is the expected value calculated?
- For every case we combine the disclosed tier odds, an equal pick within each tier, the measured wear distribution remapped to each skin's float range, and the 10% StatTrak rate, then price every outcome with live market data. Outcomes without a live price are excluded and the rest reweighted; cases with too many unpriced outcomes are not ranked at all.