CS:GO Weapon Case 3
77 skins
Weapon Skins
Knives & Gloves
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Odds
Per-tier drop odds based on the rarity ratios Valve disclosed for the China region: each rarity tier is 5x rarer than the one below it, and the rare special tier (knives and gloves) is 2.5x rarer than Covert. Within a tier, every skin is equally likely.
| Tier | Odds | Skins | Per skin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | 5 | 15.98% |
| Restricted | 15.98% | 4 | 4.00% |
| Classified | 3.20% | 2 | 1.60% |
| Covert | 0.64% | 1 | 0.64% |
| Rare Special (knives, gloves) | 0.26% | 65 | 0.0039% |
Is CS:GO Weapon Case 3 worth opening?
Most cases return less than they cost to open. The numbers below are measured from market prices across the case's drops, wears, and StatTrak rolls, not marketing; drops without a live price are excluded.
Cost to open (case + key)
$14.83
Expected drop value
$11.86
Expected return
-20.0%
Chance to profit
15.2%
Median drop
$5.12
Best possible drop right now: ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Factory New, StatTrak) at $19,999.00.
Updated Jul 30, 2026, 1:00 PM. Odds are community-verified estimates from Valve's regional disclosure; Valve does not publish global odds.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What are the odds of a knife or gloves from the CS:GO Weapon Case 3?
- About 0.26% of CS:GO Weapon Case 3 openings drop a rare special item, split evenly across 65 knife and glove variants.
- Is the CS:GO Weapon Case 3 worth opening?
- Opening currently costs $14.83 (case plus key) and the average drop is worth $11.86, with a 15.2% chance to profit on a single opening. In most cases buying the skin you want directly is cheaper than opening for it.